Exit polls
- Social Media's Limited Influence: Despite its widespread reach, social media falls short in addressing the complexities that influence voter decisions, as evidenced by recent exit polls.
- Opposition's Ineffective Strategies: The Bharat Jodo Yatra and anti-corruption campaigns failed to sway voters, highlighting a disconnect between opposition efforts and public sentiment.
Exit polls
In one of my recent articles titled " impact of Social Media on politics", I averred that despite its fast and wide circulation, the social media cannot influence the voters as it is long on grabbing attention and very much short on addressing the bewildering variety and complexity of the issues that make the electorate decide their choices.
The most popular anti BJP personalities who relentlessly attacked the BJP particularly through social media mainly YouTube and podcasts are Parakala Prabhakar Dhruv Rathi, Yogendra Yadav,Kapil sibal and Ravish Kumar.
My reading of the impact of the above social media warriors that they cannot influence the voters has turned out to be true as borne out by the result of 99% of Exit Polls.
Here is also the need to take a look at the anti-BJP programs or processes undertaken by the opposition parties or the civil society organisations and how they have failed utterly to influence the loyalty of the voters to the incumbent government.
The bharat jodo Yatra has failed to bring together the people to vote against the government in power. The relentless attack on the corruption by the government did not wash. Despite coming together, the intermittent mutual criticism of the parties in the India group seems to have convinced the people that this group cannot stick together and provide a reliable and stable government.
The promises made by this group were so impacticable that the people did not want to lose what is being already offered and being enjoyed by them.
Strangely, the constant talk of rising unemployment both by the position parties and the studies by the experts did not cut ice with the young who constitute 20% of the electorate this time and who are more easily influenced by the social media.
Youth no longer seems to bother about the encounter elimination of maoists which took place right in the middle of the election process. Does it signify that youth particularly the educated who had been backbone of the politically extremist fringe no longer considered the revolutionary path as a solution for the country's problems. The greatest fall out of the economic reforms seems to be the change in this attitude of the youth.
It is indeed surprising that during the last 20 years there was not even a single movement led by the youth except by the caste related short lived, low impact agitations.
Never before in the Independent India, the aspersions on the sincerity of Election Commission of India(ECI) were so directly levelled as during the recent elections. The civil society organisations consisting of the luminaries like ex- IAS officer MG Devssahayam, Parakala Prabhakar, Teesta Setlwad, a Retired Major General wrote to all the Returning Offficers to exercise extra vigilance in counting. They also said that they were forced to take the step as ECI had lost its reliability. Such activism by the civil society organisations in Karnataka was acknowledged as the prime force against ousting of the BJP from power. But exit polls belie their influence.
The exit polls prove that all the charges levelled against the incumbent government through social media and regular print and electronic media either failed to influence the people or were outdone by the policies of the BJP mainly focusing on religious sentiments and fear mongering on the one hand and on the other implementing the policies that must have reached the benefits to the people. A survey by the NITI aayog revealed that on the whole people believed that their living conditions have improved compared to the past.
Governments led by certain leaders such as Patnaik(Orissa),, Modi(Gujarat), Manik Sarkar(Tripura), and earlier CPM CM and the present Mamata Banerji in Bengal seem to last long. That seems to be because of certain charm of the leaders which was totally lacking in Congress.The leaders who are repeatedly returned to legislatures have one thing in common: they do not have any personal corruption charges against them and most of them have humble background.
I think that BJP's success can be attributed to its leader, dedicated and wide spread cadre, people placative if not transformative policies, bold and centralised king like decision making(our people didn't seem to have shed subservient mentality to the strong king), aggressive attacks on the opposition and subdued and pliant media and the last but the best reason Rama Temple. Religious addiction which has grown immensely particularly among the youth, in total contradiction to the youth in the developed world, has no solution even with the Alchholics Anonymous.
The CAA, removal of 370 article, increasing women's quota in legislatures, infrastructure development also helped the BJP.
All the criticism of mishandling of COVID, suppression of the biggest agitation by the farmers, unethical toppling of the opposition parties, daring incarceration of top opposition leaders on corruption charges, corruption charges against BJP have failed to influence the people. Northeast read Manipur still does not matter to the people. The opposition has so many lessons to learn.
The brave front facade of the opposition describing the exit polls as an orchestrated mind game has few takers.
BJP could manipulate the constitutional bodies. So it can also manipulate the exit poll organisers as accused by the opposition parties cannot be ruled out. This will be proved only by the election result.
The V-Dem institute that periodically assesses the governance types of the countries has placed India at 110 out of 179 countries and characterised the Indian polity as Oligarchic Democracy. That means who ever wins, the same set of powerful business men set the tune and the elected politicians sing it.and people have no option but to listen to it.
Dr M H Prasad Rao
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